MPs will vote this week whether to accept or reject Theresa May’s Brexit withdrawal agreement from the European Union.

The Prime Minister’s plan has been accepted by her Cabinet – although not without the resignation of Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab – and the EU, but the crucial test comes on Tuesday when the House of Commons gets to decide on the United Kingdom’s exit from Europe.

May has struggled to convince the Commons that her plan is the best option on the table and warned that the alternatives are either no deal or no Brexit.

The latter took another step towards reality on the eve of the vote when the European Court of Justice ruled that the United Kingdom could cancel Brexit without permission from the other 27 countries and maintaining the terms of its membership.

Last week, May suffered three defeats in one day as the government was found to be in breach of parliament for failing to publish the full legal advice on Brexit, a setback which is likely to be mirrored in Tuesday’s vote unless something dramatic happens.

Brexit betting odds

As things stand the chances of May’s withdrawal agreement being accepted by the House of Commons are very slim, according to the Brexit odds.

The Conservatives did not win a majority at the last General Election and had to form a ‘confidence and supply’ agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party, whose votes they rely on to pass legislation.

However, DUP leader Arlene Foster has declared that the proposed backstop arrangement for Northern Ireland – in which there would be no hard border with the Republic of Ireland – is “not in the national interest”.

Foster and the other nine DUP MPs are set to reject the plan because Northern Ireland would effectively be subject to some EU laws like the Customs Union, thus threatening the Union with the UK.

Former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, who resigned from the Cabinet over May’s plan which he said would mean the UK heading for the “status of a colony”, and Jacob Rees-Mogg are among between 40-80 Tories opposed to the Chequers accord which means there is little chance the ayes will have it.

The Tory Chief Whip has a monumental task on his hands to get the plan through the Commons, but a day is a long time in politics as the Brexit odds will reflect over the coming days.

Here are the odds on the House of Commons’ Brexit vote on December 11:

[All odds correct at time of publication]

Next General Election odds

If the EU Withdrawal Act and its amendments are rejected by Members of Parliament on December 11, there are several possible options for what happens next, including another General Election.

The Conservatives won another five-year team from June 2017 but only after striking a messy deal with the DUP and they may find themselves appealing to the voters once again if May fails to get the votes she needs to pass the Act.

With a political stand-off over Brexit seemingly inevitable, another General Election could take place in the UK next year, although Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is ready to take over as prime minister and for a minority government on Wednesday morning should MPs reject May’s plan.

The next General Election odds for 2019 are as short as 19/20 at the time of writing and 2/1 that the minority government will see out a full term.

Whether May resorts to a Plan B by returning to Parliament within 21 days of losing the vote to set out her new vision, quits or is forced out, the next General Election odds are set to be very volatile over the next few days.

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