Expected value in igaming: understanding EV

If you’ve dabbled in the online casino world, you’ve probably heard people talk about expected value (EV).

It’s the calculated outcome of a bet, giving players an idea of what profit they could see if they play long enough. But does expected value really matter when it comes to online casino games? Let’s take a look.

What is Expected Value in Gambling?

While an expected value can’t guarantee a jackpot, with a positive EV,  it can give the player an improved outlook in the long run. The more they play, the more likely the results will reflect the expected value. For example, if a bet has a +EV of 5%, the more you play, the more likely you’ll see a 5% return if you stick with that game/bet.

How to Find The Expected Value

Imagine we’re playing a classic game of heads and tails. You bet £1 and call tails every time. If you win, I give you £1.05, but if it lands on heads, I keep your £1. Presuming we’re not using a trick coin, there’s a 50% chance it lands on either side. That means (in theory) you’ll win £1.05 half the time, and lose £1 the other half.

So what’s the average return? First, take the 50% chance of winning and multiply it by £1.05 — that gives you £0.525. That’s your average win per flip. Then, do the same for the loss: 50% of £1 is £0.50. Now, subtract the average loss from the average win (£0.525 – £0.50) and you’re left with a profit of 2.5p per flip.

In this example, the game has a positive expected value (+EV) of 2.5%, which might not sound like much, but it all adds up, especially if you keep playing with the same game/bet. 

While casinos do have a slight edge over players, it doesn’t mean they win every time. Casinos play the long game and make money with this edge, but individual players can have success in the short term due to the variance.

You might not find many +EV bets in a typical casino, but the key is to aim for games with the highest RTP (Return to Player), as the house’s edge is lower. You’ll never get to the point where you have an edge over the house, but it will balance the odds a little more.

Promotions Are Great For Boosting EV

Since EV is all about predicting a return, taking an online casino up on promotions (especially sign-up bonuses) raises EV, since you’re essentially getting extra bets or spins for free. So, if you play smart and take advantage of these deals, you’re giving yourself a better chance at coming out ahead.

EV Strategy Can Go Wrong

The big problem with expected value is that it’s based on long-term results, but casino games are all about the short term. This means if you’re only playing an hour or two, the outcome can be unpredictable, which makes the EV less reliable. 

Also, for games like blackjack, EV assumes you’re playing perfectly, every hand. But let’s face it, we’re only human, and humans make mistakes! Hit on a hard 17, and the expected value could drop.

Understanding EV does not guarantee a win, but it can help a player make smarter moves.