The Maths That Makes Blackjack Tick

To one degree or another casino games, whether they are played offline or at an online casino, can all be broken down into odds, probabilities, and mathematical equations.

Here we take a look at the numbers and sums that make the classic table game of Blackjack tick, so that players can better understand exactly what mathematical forces are at play when they come to place their bets.

Odds Percentages of Outcomes

During a Blackjack game the maths gets underway as soon as the croupier deals the first card.

Of course, the best opening hand that any player can be dealt in Blackjack is the magic 21, with an ace being paired with a ten or a face card.

The odds of this happening stand at about 4.8%, although players should keep in mind that the dealer has the same odds of dealing themself the top opening hand.

Players are usually advised to stick on card pairings worth 17 or above, because the likelihood of busting with the next card equals 69% or higher.

38.7% is the percentage chance that a player will be dealt an opening hand that totals from 2-16. This means that 39 out of 100 is the number of times a player will be called upon to make a decision, about whether to stick with what they have, or to try and improve their hand by asking for another card. 

Brushing up on Maths skills can help any gamer

Probabilities of the Dealer Going Bust

While there is always the danger of going bust if a player asks for an extra card or two, the same applies to the dealer who is obliged to deal themselves another card if their opening hand totals 16 or less.

This means that if the dealer is dealt a 6 in their opening hand then they are likely to go bust 42 times out of a 100, or on 42% of such occasions.

Different Blackjack Variations Boast Different Odds

All the maths and numbers we have written about so far have been connected to the original form of Blackjack.

But there are now a great many varieties of the classic game, some of which boast slight tweaks to the original’s format, and which therefore change the maths involved.

This means it is always good to double check what the numbers connected to a game are when going to tackle variants like Premium Blackjack, Live Power Blackjack, and Live Quantum Blackjack to name a few.

Counting Cards Skews Maths in a Player’s Favour?

In famous Hollywood movies like 21, players seemed to find a way of flipping the odds in their favour and to beat the house at Blackjack by counting cards.

It is fair to say that for online Blackjack players it is impossible to count cards as RNG blackjack games are dealt from a full shuffled deck and the shoe is shuffled at regular intervals in Live Games. Furthermore, the maths stays the same no matter who is dealing and who happens to be seated at the virtual table.

Blackjack Basic Strategy 

This blackjack strategy can significantly bring down the house edge, making the odds almost even at 0.15%. If you don’t employ the basic blackjack strategy, the house edge is around 1%. 

This strategy is easy to learn, thanks to the easy-to-understand charts available. The strategy tells you what you should do based on the visible cards on the table. 

It’s all about making the most mathematically intelligent decision, whether that’s hitting, sticking, doubling down, or splitting. 

The Impact of the Deck Size

Blackjack games can be played with a single deck of cards or up to eight decks of cards. This has an impact on the odds, with single-deck blackjack offering the most favourable odds. 

Having more decks of cards in play affects how cards are counted and the variance of the game. However, this is not as important with online blackjack. 

The difference between a six-deck and eight-deck blackjack game is a mere 0.02% in house edge. Regardless, you should check the deck count and aim for games with no more than six decks but playing with one deck will always be the best choice. 

There are other rules to keep in mind, too, such as the number the dealer must stick on, doubling restrictions, and any surrender options. 

Blackjack Side Bets

There are various side bets available on blackjack games. These side bets include insurance, surrender, and perfect pairs. Here is a simple breakdown of these side bets.

Insurance: This bet allows players to hedge against the dealer landing blackjack. This bet pays out 2:1, but costs 5:9, so this is a side bet blackjack enthusiasts would avoid. 

Surrender: This bet allows players to forfeit their hand in return for half the wager. This bet makes sense if you’re holding a hard 16 or 15 against a dealer’s 10 or ace. 

Perfect Pairs: This bet allows you to place an extra wager on whether the cards will show a pair (same value and suit). This wager must be placed before any cards are dealt. 

Conclusion

Blackjack stands as one of the most popular games in the casino, and with the mix of skill, luck, and risk management, it’s easy to see why. 

The simple to play card game also offers excellent odds, and with a proven strategy, players can make educated betting decisions. The game is fast paced, delivering plenty of thrills to players of all levels. 

You can find many versions of online blackjack at PokerStars Casino. 

FAQ

What is the probability of hitting blackjack?

In single-deck blackjack, the chances of landing a ten and an ace are around 4.8%. In games with more than one deck, the chances increase to around 4.85%.

What is the Return to Player (RTP) in Blackjack?

The RTP for most blackjack games is 99.5%, which means over the long term, you can expect a return of £99.50 for every £100 wagered, giving the game a 0.5% house edge. 

Should I avoid Blackjack side bets?

If you’re aiming to play for profit, rather than entertainment, then you should avoid the side bets. These bets come with higher house edges, which don’t outweigh the occasional side bet wins. 

Should I learn the Basic Blackjack Strategy?

Yes! Learning the basic blackjack strategy is a great way to increase your chances of winning and understanding the game. 

Can I count cards playing online Blackjack?

Although counting cards can give you an edge in a land-based casino, the system doesn’t work with online games that use an RNG engine or live games that shuffle on every hand.